Allianz Climate Risk Award

The Laboratory of Plant Ecophysiology under Environmental Stress (LEPSE) is pleased to announce the international recognition of the work of Rogerio de Souza Nóia Júnior, selected among the ten finalists of the Allianz Climate Risk Award 2025. This prestigious award highlights young researchers who propose innovative solutions to anticipate and reduce the risks associated with extreme climate events.

Rogerio’s research, conducted within the framework of the HORIZON Europe project INVITE, focuses on the impact of climate change on the relevance of wheat variety registration trials in Europe. Europe, a key player in global food security, sees its wheat harvests threatened by the increasing frequency of droughts and heatwaves. A major challenge is emerging: if variety selection continues in environments that no longer correspond to future climates, the ability to choose resilient varieties could be compromised, endangering food production and farmers’ adaptation.

To address this issue, Rogerio used computer models to simulate the combined effects of heat and drougth on wheat.

The results are striking:

• By 2080–2100, up to 90% of current wheat trial sites in Europe will no longer reflect the expected climates in the main production areas, especially under high-emission scenarios.

• Even with moderate emissions, many heavily used sites will lose their representativeness.

• Today, the areas with conditions analogous to those of the future are mainly found in Spain, Italy, and Greece, but these too could disappear with global warming.

The study proposes concrete solutions:

• Relocate trials to currently analogous areas,

• Create experimental platforms under semi-controlled conditions,

• Revise variety registration criteria to integrate climate resilience.

This approach provides a data-driven framework to guide the establishment and design of these platforms and paves the way for the creation of cross-border trial networks capable of anticipating future climate conditions. The results inform recommendations for adapting European selection policies and reinforce INRAE’s position as a key player in research on agroecosystem adaptation.

We warmly congratulate Rogerio de Souza for this distinction and thank the European INVITE project for its decisive support. This recognition illustrates the importance of European and international collaborations and the research conducted at LEPSE to meet the challenges of agricultural system resilience in the face of climate stress.

Associated Publication:
Nóia-Júnior RdS, Manceau L, Parent B, Martre P (2025) Wheat breeding trials will lose climate relevance in Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 20: 114092. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae0e38